DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
VALID 06Z TUE 04/02 - 06Z WED 05/02 2003
ISSUED: 03/02 16:34Z
FORECASTER: GROENEMEIJER

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BENELUX COUNTRIES...EXTREME NORTHERN FRANCE...NORTHWESTERN GERMANY...EXTREME EASTERN UK...AND THE SOUTHERN NORTH SEA

GENERAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN EUROPE...PARTS OF THE WESTERN MEDITERRANEAN AND THE EASTERN AEGEAN SEA REGION

SYNOPSIS

A TROUGH IS AMPLIFYING OVER WESTERN EUROPE. A STRONG NORTHNORTHWESTERLY JET STREAM ON ITS WESTERN FLANK IS EXPANDING SOUTHWARD. A SURFACE LOW IS PRESENT OVER THE NORTH SEA MOVING SOUTHWARD. NEW CYCLOGENESIS IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE NEAR THE PO VALLEY REGION.

DISCUSSION

...THE BENELUX COUNTRIES...EXTREME NORTHERN FRANCE...NORTHWESTERN GERMANY...EXTREME EASTERN UK...AND THE SOUTHERN NORTH SEA...
THE CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN NORTH SEA WILL SLOWLY FILL DURING ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON ITS WESTERN FLANK WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD. UPWARD MOTION AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH WILL ENABLE SHALLOW MARGINAL LATENT INSTABILITY TO FORM. STRONG - POSSIBLY LINEARLY ORGANIZED - CONVECTION WILL REACH EASTERN ENGLAND AND THE BENELUX COUNTRIES IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN FORECAST STRONG /50KT/ 850 HPA WINDS, ASSOCIATED GUSTS WILL BE SEVERE IN PLACES. VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL ENABLE SHORT-LIVED ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL TO FORM WITH A CHANCE OF BRIEF TORNADOES. HAIL IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE SEVERE LIMIT /OF 1.9 CM/ AS WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS ARE LOW.

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